Commodity Highlights

November 6, 2009

Another clipper will lead to spotty light showers from MN and northern IA to MI Friday into Saturday. These showers will slow the drying down of crops, while dry and milder weather across the rest of the Midwest corn and soybean belt through the weekend favors crop maturing and harvesting. The corn and soybean harvests continue to run about 3 weeks or more behind schedule. A pair of weak frontal passages are expected next week, which can lead to small harvest disruptions.

Dry weather across the Delta and Southeast into the weekend will aid the drying of fields and allowing the harvest to progress. A hybrid low lifting out of the Gulf will spread rain across the Delta early next week, resulting in harvest delays.

Dry weather will also aid winter wheat planting across the Plains through the weekend. A weak front may lead to scattered rains across the region on Monday, which can slow planting efforts but will help maintain adequate moisture in most areas.

A pair of weak fronts will cross the main croplands of northern Argentina this weekend with generally light rain. The moisture will be beneficial for already sown summer crops and to boost soil moisture reserves, but some fieldwork delays are expected. Dry weather is expected across the region much of next week, though another front can bring wet weather toward next weekend.

The overall active pattern will continue across much of Center-South Brazil through next week. A pair of slow-moving front will lead to wetter than normal weather across the region over the next 10-15 days. The wet weather will continue to delay the planting of summer crops as fields become waterlogged. Winter wheat harvesting will also be slowed with crop quality concerns as unharvested wheat becomes unfavorably wet.

A parade of lows moving across the Mediterranean over the next few days will bring widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall to Italy. These rains will cause fieldwork disruptions but will provide a needed boost to soil moisture and irrigation reserves.

Ida has weakened to a tropical depression over eastern Nicaragua. As the storm moves northward, it will weaken considerably Friday and Friday night. However, the remnant feature is expected to move back out over water in the Gulf of Honduras near or just east of the Bay Islands on Saturday. Very warm waters exist just east of the Yucatan Peninsula where we expect the storm to be positioned by the latter half of the weekend. These warm waters combined with minimal wind shear will likely allow Ida to re-strengthen into a tropical storm. Recent computer forecasts continue to show Ida moving farther north into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. This storm could eventually threaten the Gulf coast of FL around the middle of next week.