Commodity Highlights

November 20, 2009

Dry and mild weather across the Midwest today and Saturday will allow corn harvesting to make some progress. The harvest is nearly a month behind schedule so the dry weather will be welcomed. A frontal system early next week will bring rainfall that can lead to more fieldwork disruptions. Colder air will overspread the Midwest in the wake of this front for the mid and later parts of next week with snow showers and flurries possible in the north.

Dry weather across the Southeast today into Saturday will favor the drying of water logged fields in the region, but harvesting will likely remain sluggish. A low lifting northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico will spread rain, some possibly heavy, across the Saturday night or Sunday into Monday. This wet weather will cause more harvest interruptions. Dry weather the rest of next week should allow fieldwork to resume.

There can be some rain Friday night into Saturday across the southern third of the Mississippi Delta soybean belt, but the region will otherwise have dry conditions through early next week. The favorable weather will allow any late-developing beans to continue to develop and the fall harvest to carry on without much in the way of weather delays.

A storm system moving into the western part of the nation will spread some rain into the Central Valley of California from Friday into early Saturday. Rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch from the Sacramento Valley on northward, but just 0.10 to 0.30 of an inch across the southern part of the Central Valley. Dry weather is expected across this area for most of next week.

Moisture backing in from the north will bring the chance for more rainfall from northern BA to Formosa and Misiones today into early Saturday. A frontal passage early next week could bring beneficial rainfall of up to 1.50 inches from south to north across the corn and soybean belt, with drier weather to follow for most of the remainder of the week. Another front may cross the croplands next weekend. These rains may lead to some fieldwork disruptions, but will help boost soil moisture reserves. Rainfall will be especially welcomed in the drought stricken croplands in southern BA and La Pampa.

An active pattern across Center-South Brazil over the next 10-15 days will bring wetter than normal conditions from Parana to SP, MGDS and MGS. The wet weather will continue to cause fieldwork disruptions. Wet weather in RGS and SC through the weekend will interrupt spring planting and winter wheat harvesting. A brief break in the wet weather is possible in these areas early next week, then more rainfall is expected later next week.

A cold front will bring cooling and beneficial rainfall to South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales over the next couple of days. These rains are needed to quell wild fire concerns and bring a needed moisture boost to the crops and soil moisture. Queensland and northern New South Wales, however, will likely remain hot and dry through the weekend further stressing crops and keeping fire danger high. Much of the eastern croplands will have more seasonable temperatures next week with at least normal rainfall in many areas.

Northern Portugal and northern Spain received heavy rain last week, but unfortunately the rain missed much of the agricultural areas in Spain. Central, southern and eastern Spain have averaged less than 0.25 of an inch of rainfall in November, with most areas from Madrid on southward having seen no rain in nearly a month. These areas will stay mainly dry through the next seven days, but a shift in the upper-level pattern could bring some troughiness over western Europe, which could bring some beneficial rain to the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula later next week.