September 3, 2015
A weak upper low will continue to spin near the TX coast over the next
couple of days with scattered thunderstorms from coastal TX to
southern LA through Friday. An upper level disturbance can lead to
spotty showers and storms across MI, northern IN and OH on Thursday.
Isolated airmass thunderstorms can fire over MI and OH on Friday and
Saturday, but most of the area will be dry. Despite the additional for
the risk of isolated thunderstorms in the Midwest over the next few
days, much of the Midwest and southern Plains will be dry and
summerlike through Saturday with daily highs of 84-94 (29-34C). A cold
front will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the northern Plains
of Friday and Saturday. This front will bring moderate to perhaps
heavy rainfall to the Upper Midwest on Sunday into Monday with the
front weakening as it pushes southeast across the Midwest on Monday.
However, a few light showers and storms can reach southern MO to
northern IN and MI on Monday. A wave of low pressure will develop on
the front early next week helping to drive the front southeastward
across the central and southern Plains as well as the Midwest and
Delta from Tuesday into Thursday of next week. Slight cooling is
expected across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest in the wake of
the first front Sunday into Monday with more significant cooling
across much of the Midwest in the wake of the front Tuesday into
Thursday of next week. The models still show a frontal passage across
the Midwest in the 11-15 day period, but the front does not look
exceptionally wet so sticking with rainfall of 60-80% of normal. The
GFS and CMC ensembles still show a trough digging into the Midwest in
the 11-15 day period. The models may be overdone on the trough so went
with temperatures near to slightly below normal across the Midwest.
Most of Argentina will have dry weather from Wednesday through Sunday.
A weak front will lead to spotty light rainfall from BA and La Pampa
to Entre Rios and Santa Fe on Monday and Tuesday, then areas farther
north on Wednesday. Most of the Argentina croplands will be dry from
next Thursday through Saturday. The dry weather will continue through
much of the 11-15 day period, but a front can lead to scattered light
rainfall late in the period. Across Brazil, A weak front will lead to
scattered light rainfall across northern RGS and SC on Thursday, then
dry again Friday through Sunday. Another front can spread showers and
thunderstorms across RGS and SC from Monday into next Wednesday.
Mainly dry across the southern croplands next Thursday through
Saturday. A weak front can lead to spotty light rainfall in Parana and
SP on Thursday and Friday, while MGDS stays mainly dry. The central
croplands will be dry on Saturday and Sunday. A slow-moving front will
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across Parana, SP, and
MGDS from Monday through Wednesday of next week. Parana can dry out
next Thursday and Friday, while scattered showers and storms persist
across SP and MGDS. Widely separated showers and storms are possible
across Parana, SP, and MGDS next Saturday. Areas from Minas Gerias to
Mato Grosso will be largely dry through Sunday. A slow-moving front
will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern
croplands from Monday through next Saturday with moderate rainfall
expected. These rains next week should lead to near to above normal
across the northern croplands for the 10 day period. Areas from RGS to
SP and MGDS can have normal rainfall in the 11-15 day period, while
areas farther north should turn drier than normal again.
Tropical Storm Fred is moving west northwest through the open waters
of the eastern Atlantic Ocean farther away from the Cape Verde Islands
and will pose no threat to land through at least this weekend. Drier
air and unfavorable wind shear in the path of Fred should cause Fred
to lose tropical characteristics over the next 24 hours or so. This
weekend, Fred will cross an area of warmer water while at the same
time upper-level wind shear will lessen across the open waters of the
central Atlantic. However, dry air should prevent Fred from
reorganizing this weekend or early next week.
Locally heavy rain will continue across parts of northern Florida and
the southeastern United States for the next couple of days as moisture
once associated with Erika sits over the region. This includes parts
of Georgia and southern parts of South Carolina. This can result in
flash flooding in some locations.
A surface low will gradually form northeast of Bermuda later this week
and weekend. A look at projected water temperatures and shear suggests
this low pressure area could be over marginally warm water and in an
environment of low shear and adequate moisture. If these favorable
environmental conditions do set up in and around this developing low
pressure area, it's possible this system could become a subtropical or
tropical storm late in the weekend or early next week. All indications
are that if a storm like this were to develop it would not impact the
Hurricane Ignacio remains well north of Hawaii and continues to track
northwestward away from the Hawaiian Islands. Despite this, it will
send high swells and dangerous surf to Hawaii over the next few days.
Some of the high surf will cause overwash on north-facing shores.
Those heading to the beaches should follow local warnings. The main
rain bands associated with Ignacio will remain offshore, but moisture
being pulled northward across the Hawaiian Islands will bring local
downpours over the next couple of days.
Well east of Hawaii, Hurricane Jimena remains a Category 2 hurricane
as of Wednesday evening, HST. Jimena will not have any direct impact
to land through at least early next week but will send some higher
swells and rough surf to Hawaii over the next couple of days.
Typhoon Kilo is located several hundred miles to the southwest of
Midway Island and well west of the Hawaiian Islands. It will remain
in a zone of warm ocean waters and low wind shear, so it is expected
to maintain typhoon status over the next several days. Kilo will
continue on a westerly track through the upcoming weekend, but it
will not impact land directly.
Tropical Depression 14-E is located about 530 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California. The system is moving to the north
and continues to struggle against unfavorable wind shear. Despite the
wind shear, it probably will become a tropical storm over the next 24
hours, and if so, it will be named Kevin. For the next several days,
the system will have no direct impact on land, and there is only a
slim chance that it will affect Baja California by Friday or
Saturday, if it survives far enough northward.